Climate Change, Extreme Heat, and South Asian Megacities: Impact of Heat Stress on Inhabitants and Their Productivity

Abstract

Of the 33 global megacities, 10 were situated in South Asia. Extreme heat waves have become an annual phenomenon due to climate change in South Asian megacities, causing severe health issues and even deaths. In this study, we evaluated 29 years (1990–2019) of historical data on heat stress in ten selected megacities (existing and prospective)—New Delhi, Dhaka, Mumbai, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chittagong, and Pune—in India and Bangladesh. We used heat index (HI) and environmental stress index (ESI) analyses to evaluate stress and vulnerability. Our results showed New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, and Chennai in India; Dhaka and Chittagong in Bangladesh were already experiencing an elevated number of hours of “danger” levels of heat stress, which may lead to heat cramps, exhaustion, stroke, and even death. Furthermore, the frequency of “danger” levels of heat stress and vulnerable levels of ESI has increased significantly since 2011 in the selected megacities, which elevated the heat-related vulnerability among the millions of inhabitants in terms of work hours lost for light, moderate, and heavy work due to heat stress. The vulnerable population in the studied megacities might have to reduce annual work hours by 0.25–860.6 h (light work), 43–1595.9 h (moderate work), and 291–2402 h (heavy work) due to extreme heat in 1990–2019. We also discussed the implication of the work-hour loss on productivity, income, gross domestic product, and sustainable development goal progress because of heat stress and its causes and suggested recommendations to reduce its impact.