Model for Earthquake Damage Analysis in Lifeline Utility Systems with Consideration of Uncertainties

Abstract

Considering the uncertain performance of lifelines with respect to earthquakes, the seismic assessment of critical infrastructures is of the utmost importance. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a model for critical infrastructures, with consideration of the uncertainties in a seismic damage analysis, using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) methods. Accordingly, a system is designed, based on the geo-spatial information system to analyze the spatial data by the seismic hazard analysis, vulnerability assessment, and seismic damage analysis of critical infrastructures, including water, power, gas, and oil networks. In addition to the probabilistic based methods, the one-loop (1L) method also has been used to evaluate the damage analysis without considering the uncertainty. The estimated results from various methods have been compared, and it is concluded that the estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are high in the central areas of the desired case study. Moreover, the permanent ground displacement (PGD) due to lateral spreading using the 1L method is higher than the estimated values based on MCS and LHS approaches. The outcomes based on the 1L method are within the range of 0–0.762 m and within the range of 0–0.381 m for MCS and LHS approaches. However, damages from MCS and LHS are equivalent, according to the Mann-Whitney test.