Monthly Weather Review: Recent submissions
Now showing items 821-840 of 39179
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Predicting Daily Mean Wind Speed in Europe Weeks ahead from MJO Status
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a prominent feature of the tropical atmospheric circulation at subseasonal time scales, is known to modulate atmospheric variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, current ... -
Convective-Scale Sampling Error and Its Impact on the Ensemble Radar Data Assimilation System: A Case Study of a Heavy Rainfall Event on 16 June 2008 in Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)Sampling error stems from the use of ensemble-based data assimilation (EDA) with a limited ensemble size and can result in spurious background error covariances, leading to false analysis corrections. The WRF-LETKF radar ... -
The Impact of GPS RO Data on the Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using a Nonlocal Observation Operator: An Initial Assessment
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)In this study, the impact of global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) data on the prediction of the genesis of 10 tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean is assessed. With the use of a nonlocal ... -
Multiple Hydrometeors All-Sky Microwave Radiance Assimilation in FV3GFS
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)Motivated by the use of the GFDL microphysics scheme in the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core Global Forecast System (FV3GFS), the all-sky radiance assimilation framework has been expanded to include precipitating ... -
Contrasting Relationship between Wintertime Blocking Highs over Europe–Siberia and Temperature Anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)Based on the Japanese 55-year reanalysis dataset, this study identifies 92 Europe–Siberia blocking high events (ESBs) over the 60 winters (November–March) from 1958/59 to 2017/18. According to the influence on the surface ... -
A Technique for Seamless Forecast Construction and Validation from Weather to Monthly Time Scales
(American Meteorological Society, 2020)Seamless prediction means bridging discrete short-term weather forecasts valid at a specific time and time-averaged forecasts at longer periods. Subseasonal predictions span this time range and must contend with this ... -
Assessment of Climatology and Predictability of Mid-Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in a High-Atmospheric-Resolution Seasonal Prediction System
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) landfalls over the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, which include the so-called Sandy-like, or westward-curving, tracks, are among the most infrequent landfalls along the U.S. East Coast. However, ... -
Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractAdjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short-term forecast quality is the choice of verification ... -
Vertical Resolution Requirements in Atmospheric Simulation
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe role of vertical mesh spacing in the convergence of full-physics global atmospheric model solutions is examined for synoptic, mesoscale, and convective-scale horizontal resolutions. Using the MPAS-Atmosphere ... -
Shallow Cumulus Representation and Its Interaction with Radiation and Surface at the Convection Gray Zone
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis study presents a systematic analysis of convective parameterizations performance with interactive radiation, microphysics, and surface on an idealized day with shallow convection. To this end, we analyze a ... -
Seasonal Cycles of Along-Track Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis study investigates relationships between observed tropical cyclone (TC) maximum intensities and potential intensity (PI) over the seasonal cycle. To directly compare observed and potential intensities, one ... -
Factors Affecting the Inland and Orographic Enhancement of Sea-Effect Snowfall in the Hokuriku Region of Japan
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThe Hokuriku region along the west coast of the Japanese island of Honshu receives exceptionally heavy snowfall accumulations, exceeding 500 cm from December to February near sea level and 1300 cm at high elevation ... -
Improving the Analog Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasts for Rare Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractAn analog-based ensemble technique, the analog ensemble (AnEn), has been applied successfully to generate probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables, wind and solar power, energy demand, and the optimal ... -
The Relationship between Convective Bursts and Warm-Core Intensification in a Nonhydrostatic Simulation of Typhoon Lionrock (2016)
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractTyphoon Lionrock (2016) was unusual among tropical cyclones (TCs) in that it formed east of the monsoon gyre in the western North Pacific, and moved counterclockwise. It rapidly intensified in the monsoon gyre in ... -
General Features of Extreme Rainfall Events Produced by MCSs over East China during 2016–17
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractThis study investigated the characteristics of extreme precipitation events associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in East China (the area east of 96°E) during 2016?17. Over the entire region, 204 ... -
A Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones Leading to Extreme Weather Events over Central and Eastern North America
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractCool-season extreme weather events (EWEs) (i.e., high-impact weather events that are societally disruptive, geographically widespread, exceptionally prolonged, and climatologically infrequent) are typically associated ... -
Medium-Range Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts with a Variable-Resolution Global Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractTwo sets of global, 132-h (5.5-day), 10-member ensemble forecasts were produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for 35 cases in April and May 2017. One MPAS ensemble had a quasi-uniform 15-km ... -
A Nonlinear Rank Regression Method for Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractIt is possible to describe many variants of ensemble Kalman filters without loss of generality as the impact of a single observation on a single state variable. For most ensemble algorithms commonly applied to Earth ... -
A New Dynamical Core of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model with a Height-Based Terrain-Following Vertical Coordinate
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractA new dynamical core of Environment and Climate Change Canada?s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model is presented. Unlike the existing log-hydrostatic-pressure-type terrain-following vertical ... -
A Three-Dimensional Trajectory Model with Advection Correction for Tropical Cyclones: Algorithm Description and Tests for Accuracy
(American Meteorological Society, 2019)AbstractWhen computing trajectories from model output, gridded winds are often temporally interpolated to a time step shorter than model output intervals to satisfy computational stability constraints. This study investigates ...