Probabilistic Approach to Aeolian Fatigue Design of Overhead Conductors

Abstract

Research to develop a probabilistic model and methodology for aeolian fatigue design of overhead conductors that makes use of S‐N and “Load”‐N design curves is described. The probability‐based design equations and methodology use the mean and variance data of the S‐N and “Load”‐N curves to evaluate the reliability of overhead conductors subjected to aeolian fatigue. Even though the developed equations do not provide exact reliability levels, the values obtained allow rational decisions to be made on the basis of comparison with known safe levels of reliability. Using data available for 12 Drake Aluminum Conductor Steel‐reinforced (ACSR) Georgia Power Company lines, the simplified probabilistic design approach yielded probabilities of fatigue failure from 0.006% to 30%. Hence, the probabilistic model did predict aeolian fatigue problems for some of the lines using a 1% acceptable probability of failure.