Simplified CPM/PERT Simulation Model

Abstract

Formal stochastic simulation study has been recognized as a remedy for the shortcomings inherent to classic critical path method (CPM) project evaluation and review technique (PERT) analysis. An accurate and efficient method of identifying critical activities is essential for conducting PERT simulation. This paper discusses the derivation of a PERT simulation model, which incorporates the discrete event modeling approach and a simplified critical activity identification method. This has been done in an attempt to overcome the limitations and enhance the computing efficiency of classic CPM/PERT analysis. A case study was conducted to validate the developed model and compare it to classic CPM/PERT analysis. The developed model showed marked enhancement in analyzing the risk of project schedule overrun and determination of activity criticality. In addition, the beta distribution and its subjective fitting methods are discussed to complement the PERT simulation model. This new solution to CPM network analysis can provide project management with a convenient tool to assess alternative scenarios based on computer simulation and risk analysis.