A Better Way to Estimate and Mitigate Disruption

Abstract

The construction industry has a difficult time prospectively identifying, with accuracy, either the scope or magnitude of change-caused disruption at the activity level. This difficulty increases contractors' risks when negotiating change orders, makes owners more suspicious of contractors' negotiating positions, increases the chances that change orders will not be settled and will turn into claims or disputes, and makes it more difficult for contractors to foresee and mitigate the disruptive effects of change orders. This article proposes a methodology which will solve these problems by (1) qualitatively identifying the scope of possible disruption, thereby limiting the scope of application of any disruption estimating methodology; (2) within this scope of possible disruption, quantifying disruption using an improved factor-based estimating methodology; and (3) yielding activity-specific estimates of disruption. The proposed methodology recognizes the specific characteristics of the interacting activities, and more realistically models the process by which disruption occurs. Activity-specific estimates of disruption will allow contractors to mitigate disruption by taking advantage of available float to selectively postpone some combination of the disrupting and/or disrupted activities.