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    Assessing Cost Uncertainty: Lessons from Environmental Restoration Projects

    Source: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management:;1998:;Volume ( 124 ):;issue: 006
    Author:
    James E. Diekmann
    ,
    W. David Featherman
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:6(445)
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: The uncertain physical and regulatory conditions prevalent in the field of environmental restoration often lead to considerable project cost growth. To date, the ability of project personnel to predict the magnitude of such growth has been limited. A formal approach to identifying, classifying, and incorporating uncertainty into standard cost estimating procedures is needed to quantify the risk of large-scale cost growth prior to project commencement. Because the elicitation of expert knowledge is critical to the risk analysis process, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of several approaches to eliciting and encoding probabilistic judgments. In essence we ask, “How should one frame questions concerning uncertain judgments in order to get the best answers?” In addition, this paper examines using both influence diagramming and Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with environmental restoration projects.
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      Assessing Cost Uncertainty: Lessons from Environmental Restoration Projects

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    contributor authorJames E. Diekmann
    contributor authorW. David Featherman
    date accessioned2017-05-08T22:39:30Z
    date available2017-05-08T22:39:30Z
    date copyrightDecember 1998
    date issued1998
    identifier other%28asce%290733-9364%281998%29124%3A6%28445%29.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/85345
    description abstractThe uncertain physical and regulatory conditions prevalent in the field of environmental restoration often lead to considerable project cost growth. To date, the ability of project personnel to predict the magnitude of such growth has been limited. A formal approach to identifying, classifying, and incorporating uncertainty into standard cost estimating procedures is needed to quantify the risk of large-scale cost growth prior to project commencement. Because the elicitation of expert knowledge is critical to the risk analysis process, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of several approaches to eliciting and encoding probabilistic judgments. In essence we ask, “How should one frame questions concerning uncertain judgments in order to get the best answers?” In addition, this paper examines using both influence diagramming and Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with environmental restoration projects.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleAssessing Cost Uncertainty: Lessons from Environmental Restoration Projects
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume124
    journal issue6
    journal titleJournal of Construction Engineering and Management
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:6(445)
    treeJournal of Construction Engineering and Management:;1998:;Volume ( 124 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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