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    Updating Models and Their Uncertainties. I: Bayesian Statistical Framework

    Source: Journal of Engineering Mechanics:;1998:;Volume ( 124 ):;issue: 004
    Author:
    J. L. Beck
    ,
    L. S. Katafygiotis
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(1998)124:4(455)
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: The problem of updating a structural model and its associated uncertainties by utilizing dynamic response data is addressed using a Bayesian statistical framework that can handle the inherent ill-conditioning and possible nonuniqueness in model updating applications. The objective is not only to give more accurate response predictions for prescribed dynamic loadings but also to provide a quantitative assessment of this accuracy. In the methodology presented, the updated (optimal) models within a chosen class of structural models are the most probable based on the structural data if all the models are equally plausible a priori. The prediction accuracy of the optimal structural models is given by also updating probability models for the prediction error. The precision of the parameter estimates of the optimal structural models, as well as the precision of the optimal prediction-error parameters, can be examined. A large-sample asymptotic expression is given for the updated predictive probability distribution of the uncertain structural response, which is a weighted average of the predictive probability distributions for each optimal model. This predictive distribution can be used to make model predictions despite possible nonuniqueness in the optimal models.
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      Updating Models and Their Uncertainties. I: Bayesian Statistical Framework

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    contributor authorJ. L. Beck
    contributor authorL. S. Katafygiotis
    date accessioned2017-05-08T22:38:39Z
    date available2017-05-08T22:38:39Z
    date copyrightApril 1998
    date issued1998
    identifier other%28asce%290733-9399%281998%29124%3A4%28455%29.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/84781
    description abstractThe problem of updating a structural model and its associated uncertainties by utilizing dynamic response data is addressed using a Bayesian statistical framework that can handle the inherent ill-conditioning and possible nonuniqueness in model updating applications. The objective is not only to give more accurate response predictions for prescribed dynamic loadings but also to provide a quantitative assessment of this accuracy. In the methodology presented, the updated (optimal) models within a chosen class of structural models are the most probable based on the structural data if all the models are equally plausible a priori. The prediction accuracy of the optimal structural models is given by also updating probability models for the prediction error. The precision of the parameter estimates of the optimal structural models, as well as the precision of the optimal prediction-error parameters, can be examined. A large-sample asymptotic expression is given for the updated predictive probability distribution of the uncertain structural response, which is a weighted average of the predictive probability distributions for each optimal model. This predictive distribution can be used to make model predictions despite possible nonuniqueness in the optimal models.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleUpdating Models and Their Uncertainties. I: Bayesian Statistical Framework
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume124
    journal issue4
    journal titleJournal of Engineering Mechanics
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(1998)124:4(455)
    treeJournal of Engineering Mechanics:;1998:;Volume ( 124 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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