Frequency of Recurrent Extremes under Nonstationarity

Abstract

The concepts and methods for planning and design of hydraulic structures subject to hydrologic extreme events that arise from nonstationary conditions have emerged in the last few years. The traditional approaches such as return period, risk, and reliability assume that extreme events are stationary and they are being reformulated for applications under nonstationary conditions. For this purpose, some of the previous developments have been based on the nonhomogeneous geometric distribution. The particular importance of this paper relates to the frequency of extreme events as time evolves, say for a given time period