Probabilistic Approach for Estimating Plastic Hinge Length of Reinforced Concrete Columns

Abstract

Given the importance of the plastic hinge length in predicting the displacement ductility of reinforced concrete (RC) structures, it is crucial to be able to accurately determine it without a large scatter. However, given the large number of model parameters with significant uncertainty, a deterministic prediction of plastic hinge length is extremely difficult. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a method to determine the plastic hinge length by a probabilistic approach. Existing plastic hinge length models are collected from the literature to form a comprehensive database. Then, a probabilistic plastic hinge length model is proposed by discussing the plastic hinge mechanism separately to include the missing design variables. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method is used to assess the unknown model parameters with those experimental data. The cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of four model parameters are estimated for the proposed model. It was found that almost all of the observational results fell within the 90% confidence interval of predicted lengths, indicating the strength of the proposed model in predicting the plastic hinge length of RC columns from the prospective of probability. For facilitating use in engineering practice, a deterministic expression is also provided by using the mean value of four model parameters to predict this quantity of interest for the nonlinear analysis of RC structures.