Holistic Analysis of Infrastructure Deterioration and Rehabilitation Using System Dynamics

Abstract

Rehabilitation programs are essential for efficiently managing large networks of infrastructure assets and sustaining their safety and operability. While numerous studies in the literature have focused on various aspects of infrastructure rehabilitation, limited efforts have investigated the overall dynamics of the process. The research presented in this paper, therefore, takes a holistic view to investigate the dynamics that affect rehabilitation decisions and the long-term performance of an infrastructure network. First, the interactions among the main parameters related to asset deterioration, rehabilitation actions, and cost accumulation have been analyzed using causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Afterward, a system dynamics (SD) model has been developed based on the CLDs and the underlying mathematical relations among the various parameters. The SD model was then tested on a network of 1,000 assets over a 50-year plan, considering a range of rehabilitation policies regarding budgets, possible rehabilitation actions, and fund allocation options. The model proved to be a practical and effective tool for quick assessment of the long-term impact of rehabilitation policies on infrastructure performance and costs.