Quantitative Analysis of Human-Water Relationships and Harmony-Based Regulation in the Tarim River Basin

Abstract

In recent decades, the Tarim River basin in northwestern China has seen intense confrontation between economic development and environmental protection. How to balance sustainable socioeconomic development and harmony between humans and water has been a critical issue facing local governments for many years. This study proposes a quantitative method of harmony theory that contains three basic criteria, heath, development, and coordination, to address the harmony problem regarding the human–water relationship in the basin. Indicators were used to quantify levels of health, development, and coordination in the basin. An optimal scheme is proposed, based on the three aggregate indicators. The evaluation results indicate the following: (1) health conditions in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin are not optimal. Development conditions in the lower reach are slightly better, and coordination conditions there are the poorest; and (2) the Aksu and Kaidu-Kongqi rivers have a relatively harmonious state, but remaining districts have relative disharmony. Scenario simulation results show that human system development and water system health are equally important for a harmonious relationship. When the human and water systems achieve coordinated development, the degree of harmony increased from 0.4230 to 0.6618. Regulation results are of scientific and practical value in basin-scale water resource management in arid regions.