Assessment of Composite Pavement Performance by Survival Analysis

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to identify the most appropriate rehabilitation method for composite pavements and to evaluate the influence of different factors for the reflective crack development in composite pavement by survival analysis. Four composite pavement rehabilitation methods are evaluated: mill and fill, overlay, heater scarification, and rubblization. Survival analysis is used to evaluate the four methods using three pavement performance indicators: reflective cracking, international roughness index (IRI), and pavement condition index (PCI). Rubblization can significantly retard reflective cracking development compared with the other three methods. No significant difference for PCI is seen in the survival analysis for the four rehabilitation methods. Heater scarification shows the lowest survival probability for both reflective cracking and IRI, whereas overlay results in the poorest overall pavement condition based on PCI. Parametric survival models are employed to further analyze the factors influencing reflective cracking for the four composite pavement rehabilitation methods. Traffic level is found to not be a significant factor for reflective cracking development. An increase in overlay thickness can significantly delay the propagation of reflective cracking for all treatment methods (not including rubblization). Soil types in rubblization pavement sites are assessed, and no close relationship is found between rubblized pavement performance and subgrade soil condition.