Predicting Change by Evaluating the Change Implementation Process in Construction Projects Using Event Tree Analysis

Abstract

Changes often have significant and unpredictable effects on construction projects. There are numerous kinds of changes that can occur in construction projects. This research considers changes that have negative effects on one or more project objectives or project participant’s interests. Promoting a change prediction system can increase the ability to prevent the negative effects of change. Throughout a construction project life cycle, a change may occur through two consecutive phases, including the change formation phase and change implementation phase. To predict occurrence of change in construction projects, this study focuses on the implementation phase of change occurrence. The implementation process of a change, which has negative effects, is almost often accompanied with unresolved issues, conflicts, claims, or even disputes. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework to predict the change in construction projects by evaluating the change implementation process. In this way, first, the predicted change formation scenarios are entered into the change implementation phase by change requests and/or change orders. Then, based on general possible scenarios of conflicts/nonconflicts, followed by scenarios of request/nonrequest, the change implementation phase is subdivided into change implementation paths. To evaluate the developed change implementation paths, a risk index is developed using the event tree analysis. Separating the probability and effect of different paths by utilizing a risk index provides the ability to analyze the probability of different effects of implementing change. Thereby, occurrence of change and arising conflicts due to the change implementation process may be predicted. Finally, a real construction project is considered as an example to illustrate the application of the method and demonstrate the method’s capabilities.