Potential of Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Approach for Precipitation-Based Soil Moisture Estimation

Abstract

In this paper, a hydrometeorological approach to the probabilistic simulation of soil moisture is proposed. The time series of in situ soil moisture and meteorological variables at a monthly scale from different monitoring stations across India are utilized. Preliminary investigation with both precipitation and near-surface air temperature as meteorological variables reveals that the strength of association between soil moisture and precipitation is more significant compared to that between soil moisture and temperature. Precipitation-based probabilistic estimation of soil moisture using the proposed hydrometeorological approach is tested with in situ observed soil moisture data and with soil moisture data of the Climate Change Initiative project, funded by the European Space Agency. The results are found to be promising. In addition, the proposed hydrometeorological approach is able to provide the information on uncertainty associated with the estimation. It is also shown that the parameter of the developed model is linked to the predominant soil textural class. Higher values of the model parameter [dependence parameter (