Corn Yield Simulation under Different Nitrogen Loading and Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Climate change in recent years has been affecting agriculture and especially crop production worldwide. This study analyzes the effect of two different climate change scenarios on crop production of an experimental site in southern Québec, Canada. The DSSAT model, which was calibrated for years 2008 and 2009, was used to simulate corn growth with 30 years of synthetic data for climate scenarios baseline (1961–1990), A2 (2040–2069), and B1 (2040–2069). In comparison with the baseline scenario, the A2 and B1 scenarios projected a decrease in grain and biomass, an increase in crop ET and evaporation, and an early crop emergence and maturity dates. Reduction in grain yield of up to 40% for A2 and 24% for B1 scenarios was observed, which could be attributed to water-deficit conditions resulting from decreased rainfall and increase in temperature during the growing season. Because drought indices were found to be significantly correlated with grain yield and crop water stress, it could be used to define the variability of grain yield and water stress at the field scale. This study indicates that climate change might have a negative effect in terms of corn crop production under the given study area.