Integrated Hydrologic and Reservoir Routing Model for Real-Time Water Level Forecasts

Abstract

Reliable forecasts of reservoir water levels are important for reservoir operations and water resources management. A reservoir water level forecasting model was developed by integrating the Xinanjiang model and a reservoir routing model. The integrated model, of which the hydrologic parameters are calibrated based on the observed water level directly, is used to forecast the reservoir water levels, while that of the conventional method calibrates the hydrologic model using the estimated reservoir inflows from water balance. Through an application to the China’s Shuibuya Reservoir, the integrated model shows a much higher accuracy than the conventional method, with an average RMS error of 0.10 m, whereas that of the conventional method is 5.13 m. The presented model provides a reliable tool for real-time forecasts of reservoir water levels.