Real-Time Construction Schedule Analysis of Long-Distance Diversion Tunnels Based on Lithological Predictions Using a Markov ProcessSource: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2015:;Volume ( 141 ):;issue: 002DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000935Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract: Schedules are major concerns in construction planning and management. The mutual interferences among construction activities of long-distance diversion tunnels (LDDTs) are complicated because of their crisscrossing and intensive layout, which will affect scheduling to some degree. Especially, lithology has a conclusive influence on underground construction. But the lithology determination methods of current construction simulation, such as the trend of extrapolation from observations, do not fully consider lithology’s inherent characteristics and the transition probability between different lithological classifications. In the present study, the authors propose a hierarchical simulation model coupling the critical path method (CPM) and cycle operation network (CYCLONE) to arrange the intricate construction sequence of LDDTs. Additionally, a Markov prediction model is embedded into the CYCLONE model as a specific component to consider lithological uncertainty and estimate construction parameters of each cycle automatically. Based on the proposed simulation model, a real-time construction schedule analysis system is built. A case study project is analyzed to demonstrate the feasibility of the methodology and to highlight its capabilities. For this project, a reasonable planned schedule is proposed, an optimal equipment selection is determined, the excavation intensity is balanced, and it is verified that a simulation model considering lithological uncertainty using a Markov process provides a higher level of accuracy in prediction than traditional simulations. Finally, regulatory measures are presented for site management based on the simulation results and the deviations between the actual and planned schedules.
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contributor author | Lei Bi | |
contributor author | Bingyu Ren | |
contributor author | Denghua Zhong | |
contributor author | Lianxing Hu | |
date accessioned | 2017-05-08T22:10:44Z | |
date available | 2017-05-08T22:10:44Z | |
date copyright | February 2015 | |
date issued | 2015 | |
identifier other | 37235306.pdf | |
identifier uri | http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/72904 | |
description abstract | Schedules are major concerns in construction planning and management. The mutual interferences among construction activities of long-distance diversion tunnels (LDDTs) are complicated because of their crisscrossing and intensive layout, which will affect scheduling to some degree. Especially, lithology has a conclusive influence on underground construction. But the lithology determination methods of current construction simulation, such as the trend of extrapolation from observations, do not fully consider lithology’s inherent characteristics and the transition probability between different lithological classifications. In the present study, the authors propose a hierarchical simulation model coupling the critical path method (CPM) and cycle operation network (CYCLONE) to arrange the intricate construction sequence of LDDTs. Additionally, a Markov prediction model is embedded into the CYCLONE model as a specific component to consider lithological uncertainty and estimate construction parameters of each cycle automatically. Based on the proposed simulation model, a real-time construction schedule analysis system is built. A case study project is analyzed to demonstrate the feasibility of the methodology and to highlight its capabilities. For this project, a reasonable planned schedule is proposed, an optimal equipment selection is determined, the excavation intensity is balanced, and it is verified that a simulation model considering lithological uncertainty using a Markov process provides a higher level of accuracy in prediction than traditional simulations. Finally, regulatory measures are presented for site management based on the simulation results and the deviations between the actual and planned schedules. | |
publisher | American Society of Civil Engineers | |
title | Real-Time Construction Schedule Analysis of Long-Distance Diversion Tunnels Based on Lithological Predictions Using a Markov Process | |
type | Journal Paper | |
journal volume | 141 | |
journal issue | 2 | |
journal title | Journal of Construction Engineering and Management | |
identifier doi | 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000935 | |
tree | Journal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2015:;Volume ( 141 ):;issue: 002 | |
contenttype | Fulltext |