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    Programmatic Cost Risk Analysis for Highway Megaprojects

    Source: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2005:;Volume ( 131 ):;issue: 003
    Author:
    Keith R. Molenaar
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:3(343)
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: Highway megaprojects (construction projects over $100 million) are fraught with uncertainty. These projects have historically experienced increases in project costs from the time that a project is first proposed or programmed until the time that they are completed. Persistent cost underestimation reflects poorly on the industry in general but more specifically on engineers. Traditional methods take a deterministic, conservative approach to project cost estimating and then add a contingency factor that varies depending on the stage of project definition, experience, and other factors. This approach falls short, and no industry standard stochastic estimating practice is currently available. This paper presents a methodology developed by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) for its Cost Estimating Validation Process. Nine case studies, with a mean cumulative value of over $22 billion, are presented and analyzed. Programmatic risks are summarized as economic, environmental, third party, right-of-way, program management, geotechnical, design process, construction, and other minor risks. WSDOT is successfully using the range cost output from this procedure to convey project costs to management and the public.
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      Programmatic Cost Risk Analysis for Highway Megaprojects

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/70911
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    contributor authorKeith R. Molenaar
    date accessioned2017-05-08T22:05:14Z
    date available2017-05-08T22:05:14Z
    date copyrightMarch 2005
    date issued2005
    identifier other18346391.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/70911
    description abstractHighway megaprojects (construction projects over $100 million) are fraught with uncertainty. These projects have historically experienced increases in project costs from the time that a project is first proposed or programmed until the time that they are completed. Persistent cost underestimation reflects poorly on the industry in general but more specifically on engineers. Traditional methods take a deterministic, conservative approach to project cost estimating and then add a contingency factor that varies depending on the stage of project definition, experience, and other factors. This approach falls short, and no industry standard stochastic estimating practice is currently available. This paper presents a methodology developed by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) for its Cost Estimating Validation Process. Nine case studies, with a mean cumulative value of over $22 billion, are presented and analyzed. Programmatic risks are summarized as economic, environmental, third party, right-of-way, program management, geotechnical, design process, construction, and other minor risks. WSDOT is successfully using the range cost output from this procedure to convey project costs to management and the public.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleProgrammatic Cost Risk Analysis for Highway Megaprojects
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume131
    journal issue3
    journal titleJournal of Construction Engineering and Management
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:3(343)
    treeJournal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2005:;Volume ( 131 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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