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    Stochastic Forecast of Construction Cost Index Using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Model

    Source: Journal of Management in Engineering:;2013:;Volume ( 029 ):;issue: 001
    Author:
    Jiang-wei Xu
    ,
    Sungwoo Moon
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000112
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: The construction cost index (CCI) has been widely used to measure the cost trend in the construction industry. The index is used as an important input when estimating construction budgets and assessing risks in resource planning and cost management. To ensure accurate measurement, the properties of cost indexes should be investigated in their long- and short-run interactions with other variables, such as the consumer price index. This paper presents a cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) model for forecasting the construction cost trend. This model has several advantages in terms of flexibility and dynamic interaction, and a comparison with existing methods demonstrates that the cointegrated VAR model can provide more accurate forecasts of the CCI. Practitioners can implement the cointegrated VAR forecasting technique using their own historical data. The index forecasts can not only provide more accurate estimation of construction budgets, but also evaluate the risk and uncertainty of cost escalation.
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      Stochastic Forecast of Construction Cost Index Using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Model

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    contributor authorJiang-wei Xu
    contributor authorSungwoo Moon
    date accessioned2017-05-08T21:54:36Z
    date available2017-05-08T21:54:36Z
    date copyrightJanuary 2013
    date issued2013
    identifier other%28asce%29me%2E1943-5479%2E0000145.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/66170
    description abstractThe construction cost index (CCI) has been widely used to measure the cost trend in the construction industry. The index is used as an important input when estimating construction budgets and assessing risks in resource planning and cost management. To ensure accurate measurement, the properties of cost indexes should be investigated in their long- and short-run interactions with other variables, such as the consumer price index. This paper presents a cointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) model for forecasting the construction cost trend. This model has several advantages in terms of flexibility and dynamic interaction, and a comparison with existing methods demonstrates that the cointegrated VAR model can provide more accurate forecasts of the CCI. Practitioners can implement the cointegrated VAR forecasting technique using their own historical data. The index forecasts can not only provide more accurate estimation of construction budgets, but also evaluate the risk and uncertainty of cost escalation.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleStochastic Forecast of Construction Cost Index Using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Model
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume29
    journal issue1
    journal titleJournal of Management in Engineering
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000112
    treeJournal of Management in Engineering:;2013:;Volume ( 029 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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