| description abstract | Research and development for energy systems (e.g., smart and secure microgrids for industrial and military installations and solar cogeneration technologies) must account for deep uncertainties and emergent conditions including economic, regulatory, technological, mission, demographic, and environmental or ecological, among others. Deep uncertainties involve structural and qualitative perspectives or trends that change the game. Recent literature has identified emergent conditions and deep uncertainties that are most influential to decision criteria priorities among existing energy assets and systems. This paper introduces a practical method to help prioritize strategic energy research and development investments and minimize opportunity loss or program risk for investments with a long time horizon. There are a number of interesting observations that can be perceived from this method including robustness, scenario influence, risk, and opportunity. The method is recommended to help achieve consensus of program managers, installation commanders, energy managers, technology vendors, urban planners, and customers and tenants. A quantitative demonstration is provided that addresses five scenarios of deep uncertainty, ten performance criteria, and six investment portfolios. | |
