Simulating Freight Traffic between Atlantic Canada and Québec to Support Pavement Management on New Brunswick’s Regional Highways

Abstract

Traffic loading for pavement deterioration should be modeled as a dynamic indicator based on trip distribution derived from spatial economics. The estimation of modal distribution of trips and land development has been the main focus of integrated land use and transport models. However, no connection with transportation asset management has been established. This paper proposes the use of spatial economic simulation to forecast freight-traffic distribution to improve pavement-deterioration modeling. A case study of trade flows between Canada’s Atlantic Provinces and Québec is used to show the pitfall of current management models in estimating rates of deterioration, underfunding maintenance, and rehabilitation strategies. It was found that a total cost of $25 million could maintain adequate levels of condition under the current performance modeling; however, such a budget is inadequate when performance is based on forecasted truck traffic. It was also found that aggregation of pavements in a few homogeneous groups resulted in the inability to prioritize investments considering the economic relevance of the road in the region. This study suggests the use of individual deterioration models for strategic roads.