Response of Hydrologic Processes to Future Climate Changes in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

Recent climate changes have observable impacts on hydrologic processes and will further affect hydrologic systems in the future. The temperature and precipitation modeled with eight global circulation models (GCMs) (selected from 22 GCMs published in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) under three typical emission scenarios entitled A1B, A2, and B1 were evaluated in this study for future projections in the Yangtze River Basin, China. The artificial neural network model was used to assess the evolutional trend of hydrologic processes (e.g., streamflow) and the possibility of extreme floods in the Yangtze River Basin by using data generated by selected GCMs under future climate changes. The results indicate that the future annual streamflow tends to decrease in the Yangtze River Basin. The future average annual flow is reduced by