Integrating Logistical and Technical Criteria into a Multiteam, Competitive Watershed Model Ranking Procedure

Abstract

A systematic and holistic watershed model comparison and selection process, integrating a full range of relevant criteria, is illustrated here. The process consists of screening for a set of candidate models on the basis of prerequisite model attributes; assessing hydrologic simulation performance using various conventional statistical metrics; assessing operational logistics performance, reflecting somewhat subjective but centrally important issues around relative feasibility and suitability of candidate models in the intended context of use; and integrating the hydrologic and operational performance results, which are each evaluated using a weighted-matrix approach, into a single coherent and comprehensive ranking system. The process was applied to evaluation of watershed models for operational hydroelectric inflow forecasting in British Columbia, Canada. An important feature of the study was its horse-race project management approach, involving a supervised competition between expert teams using different models but the same data sets. Four models passed the prescreening phase, and these were evaluated for three test basins representing contrasting geophysical regimes. The model selection process presented here is believed to be potentially very broadly useful.