Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the North Platte River Watershed, Wyoming

Abstract

The impact of climate change on water resources is a major issue for regions in the world. Climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation are expected to change in the future and could significantly impact available water resources. This paper assesses long-term water availability over the North Platte River watershed, Wyoming, by utilizing the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and developing streamflow projections under anthropogenic climate change conditions. Uncertainties in the scenarios of climate change and global climate models are assessed by utilizing ensemble multiple models and multiple scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme’s database. The simulated streamflows are compared using an intermodel interscenario approach. Based on streamflow projections, there is a possibility of increased annual streamflow for this region through 2100, with maximum streamflow during 2085–2090. The simulated annual streamflows for future periods vary from −20 to 62% with respect to the baseline period (1971–2000). In the simulations, the wet months are getting wetter, whereas the summer months are found to be growing drier. The streamflow projections and the range of streamflow can be utilized by decision makers in future water supply and demand management study.