Regional Modeling of Climate Change Impact on Peninsular Malaysia Water Resources

Abstract

The future projections of climate change by means of global climate models of the Earth provide fundamental coarse-grid-resolution hydroclimate data for studies of the effect of climate change on water resources. This paper reports on a study that was performed during 2001–2006, in which the climate change simulations of the coupled global climate model of the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis were downscaled by a regional hydroclimate model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) to the scale of the subregions and watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia (PM), to assess the effect of future climate change on its water resources. On the basis of the simulations of hydroclimatic conditions during the historical period of 1984–1993 and future periods of 2025–2034 and 2041–2050, this report concludes that the overall mean monthly streamflow is approximately the same during both the future period, and the historical period for most of the watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia, except Kelantan and Pahang. In those two watersheds, a significant increase occurs in the overall mean monthly streamflow during the future period. In the future, high flow conditions will be magnified in the Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, and Perak River watersheds during the wet months, whereas low monthly flows will be significantly lower in the Selangor and Klang watersheds during the dry months.