Estimation of Probabilistic Extreme Wind Load Effects: Combination of Aerodynamic and Wind Climate Data

Abstract

A refined full-order method is presented for estimating the extreme wind load effects of rigid structures with given mean recurrence intervals (MRIs) by combining the distributions of annual maximum wind speed and extreme load coefficients. This refined method is capable of dealing with any type of asymptotic extreme value distribution. With this full-order method, the predictions of wind load effects by using distributions of annual maximum wind velocity pressure and wind speed are compared that provide information on the sensitivity of predictions to the upper tail of wind speed distribution. The efficacy of the first-order method is examined. The influences of the type of distributions and the variations of annual maximum wind speed and extreme load coefficient on the predictions are quantified. Finally, the first- and full-order methods are extended to wind load effects of dynamically sensitive structures which facilitate a comprehensive probabilistic analysis as compared to the Monte Carlo simulation schemes used in literature. It is pointed out that 78% fractile extreme load coefficient can be used for defining the characteristic load effects of both rigid and dynamically sensitive structures. The wind load factor is insensitive to the variation of extreme load coefficient. It can be approximately estimated through the wind speed factor and the growth rate of extreme wind load effect with increasing wind speed. The result concerning the wind load factor justifies the advantage of specifying design wind speeds with various MRIs in reducing the uncertainties of design wind loading.