Hybrid Model Incorporating Real Options with Process Centric and System Dynamics Modeling to Assess Value of Investments in Alternative Dispute Resolution Techniques

Abstract

Project-specific dispute resolution ladders (DRLs) are typically implemented in construction projects to resolve issues arising between the project participants. The DRL typically consists of single or multiple alternative dispute resolution (ADR) techniques to address construction issues at the three levels of escalation: conflicts; disputes; and claims. However, a DRL requires significant investments to cover the direct costs incurred in-house by the project participants or, externally, if construction specialists and lawyers are recruited to assist in the resolution. Thus, the benefits of the DRL implementation in a construction project must outweigh its costs for the implementation to be worthwhile. This paper presents a methodology to study the effect of different resolution strategies on the value of the investment in a DRL using option/real option theories from financial engineering, process centric modeling, and system dynamics methodology. Of particular interest in this paper is the integration of these research methodologies into a computer model to support the evaluation of the DRL investment in a particular construction project by taking into account the characteristics of (1) the project and (2) the different ADR techniques chosen for the DRL implementation. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate the application of the computer model in a real construction project. The results of the simulation serve two main purposes. First, the results of the simulation are used to verify the intended model behavior in terms of proper integration of the three methodologies (i.e., real options, process centric, and system dynamics) in one computer system. Second, the model application to a real construction project using actual project data illustrates the potential of the model in providing the project participants with information related to the expected number of claims and change orders resolved at each level of the DRL, the change in the expected savings during the construction phase, and finally the value of the investment from the perspective of the project owner.