Contractor Selection Model for Highway Projects Using Integrated Simulation and Analytic Network Process

Abstract

Selecting the appropriate contractor is a significant step to highway project success. The process of selection is subjected to uncertainty and influence of criteria other than bid price. This paper presents an approach to prioritize competitive contractors at the prebidding stage for highway projects by utilizing the analytic network process (ANP) and Monte Carlo simulation. Both techniques are integrated on a single platform to build the proposed model. Initially, the main quantitative and qualitative criteria affecting the contractors’ selection process are identified and studied. The effective criteria in the selection process were obtained from experts and literature. A structured questionnaire was designed and sent to experts in highway projects. The ANP was used to prioritize these criteria subsequently, and Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to develop the selection model. The applicability of the proposed model was tested using four real cases of highway projects. It was concluded that using the lowest bid price as a sole criterion for selecting the best contractors may not result in an optimum solution.