Climate Forecasts and Flood Planning under the Reign of ENSO

Abstract

We examine the use of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts for flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. Our investigation relies on (1) case studies of three counties vulnerable to flooding that have had access to long-term forecasts of ENSO conditions, and (2) examination of data collected from a survey of nearly 60 local emergency managers, planners, and public works staff. Results suggest that climate forecasts can facilitate flood planning when used by public and private policy entrepreneurs to build political support for flood mitigation measures. Understanding the social processes and regulatory machinery involved in applying these forecasts is critical to their more effective use. This use could be promoted by an extension service to disseminate climate information and proactive efforts to identify and work with entrepreneurial hazard planners and managers.