Probabilistic Approach to Identify Sensitive Parameter Distributions in Multimedia Pathway Analysis

Abstract

Sensitive parameter distributions were identified with the use of probabilistic analysis in the RESRAD computer code. RESRAD is a multimedia pathway analysis code designed to evaluate radiological exposures resulting from radiological contamination in soil. The dose distribution was obtained by using a set of default parameter distribution/values. Most of the variations in the output dose distribution could be attributed to uncertainty in a small set of input parameters that could be considered as sensitive parameter distributions. The identification of the sensitive parameters is a first step in the prioritization of future research and information gathering. When site-specific parameter distribution/values are available for an actual site, the same process should be used with these site-specific data. Regression analysis used to identify sensitive parameters indicated that the dominant pathways depended on the radionuclide and source configurations. However, two parameter distributions were sensitive for many radionuclides: the external shielding factor when external exposure was the dominant pathway and the plant transfer factor when plant ingestion was the dominant pathway. No single correlation or regression coefficient can be used alone to identify sensitive parameters in all the cases. The coefficients are useful guides, but they have to be used in conjunction with other aids, such as scatter plots, and should undergo further analysis.