Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Sliding Displacement of Slopes: Scalar and Vector Approaches

Abstract

Sliding block displacements often are used to evaluate the potential for ground failure due to slope instability. The procedures used to assess sliding block displacement typically use deterministic or pseudoprobabilistic approaches, in which the uncertainties in the expected ground motion and resulting displacement are either ignored or not treated in a rigorous manner. Thus, there is no concept of the actual hazard associated with the computed displacement. This paper presents a fully probabilistic framework for assessing sliding block displacements. The product of this analysis is a displacement hazard curve, which provides the annual rate of exceedance,