Effect of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regime of Two Climatically Different Watersheds

Abstract

Hydrologic modeling of the responses of two study watersheds to climate change is presented. The watersheds are the Upper Campbell and the Illecillewaet watersheds located in British Columbia. The first is a maritime watershed located on the eastern slopes of the Vancouver Island mountains; the second is located in the Selkirk Mountains in Eastern British Columbia. The Canadian Climate Centre General Circulation model has been used for the prediction of potential effects of climate change on meteorological parameters. In addition to the changes in the amounts of precipitation and temperature usually assumed in hydrologic climate change studies, other meteorological and climatic parameters also considered are the effect of climate on the spatial distribution of precipitation with elevation, as well as on cloud cover, glaciers, vegetation distribution, vegetation biomass production, and plant physiology. The results showed that the mean annual temperature in the two watersheds could increase by more than 3°C and the annual basinwide precipitation could increase by 7.5% in the Upper Campbell watershed and by about 17% in the Illecillewaet watershed. The higher temperatures changed some snowfall to rainfall and the extra precipitation was mainly in the form of rain. The increase of the CO