Uncertainty in Flexural Capacity Prediction of Ferrocement Elements

Abstract

This paper examines the uncertainty in the mathematical models used for predicting the ultimate and first‐crack moment capacities of ferrocement structural elements. Uncertainty studies are performed on five ultimate‐moment models and two first‐crack moment models using experimental data. The studies include the uncertainty in each model arising from the basic variables as well as the prediction error in each model due to the simplifications and assumptions made in deriving the model. The results obtained provide a basis for comparing the accuracy of each model as well as for use in reliability‐based design. The mechanism approach and the equilibrium method are comparatively more reliable for predicting the ultimate and first‐crack moment capacities, respectively, among the models studied.