Probabilistic Performance Evaluation of Buried Onshore and Offshore Pipelines Subjected to Earthquakes: Perspectives on Uncertainties

Abstract

Buried onshore and offshore pipelines subjected to seismic activities involve uncertainties, leading to unexpected damage. Probabilistic-based methods capture such uncertainties by identifying random variables affecting the pipeline structures’ response intervals, thereby improving the accuracy of structural performance evaluations. The present study systematically reviewed probabilistic-based performance evaluation approaches for oil and gas (OG) pipelines from the perspective of uncertainties. The findings demonstrate uncertainties that are multisource heterogeneous from the perspectives of risk, reliability, fragility, and resilience (RRFR), produced in pre-, during, and post-earthquake events. RRFR is the primary manifestation of OG pipeline performance under earthquakes with different ultimate objectives and problem-solving methods. Risk and resilience assessments focus on loading uncertainties in the pre-earthquake phase and damage uncertainties in the post-earthquake phase. Reliability assessments concentrate on mechanistic uncertainties during the earthquake phase, while fragility assessments focus on loadings and parameter uncertainties in the pre-earthquake phase. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is the most widely used method in the field of pipeline probabilistic seismic analysis, which can effectively solve the spatial variability-induced mechanical uncertainty combined with random field modeling. Future research is expected to delve deeper into the uncertainties of recovery mechanisms to enhance pipeline resilience.