Modeling the Interdependencies between the Risk Factors Contributing to Preconstruction Delays in Construction Projects

Abstract

While preconstruction delays have significant ramifications on all aspects of a project, they are often overlooked. Existing research studies focused on preconstruction delay factors as isolated events without considering the interdependencies between them. This paper addresses this research gap by considering and analyzing the associations between various risk factors causing delays in the preconstruction phase. First, a list of 30 preconstruction delay risk factors was identified based on relevant literature and was validated using the Delphi technique. Second, the dependencies between the risk factors were identified by constructing a risk structure matrix (RSM) through input from a focus group of experts by following the Delphi approach. Third, the analytic hierarchy process method was applied on the obtained RSM to quantify the identified dependencies between the various risk factors by constructing a risk numerical matrix (RNM) based on a survey distributed to industry practitioners. Fourth, the relationships or correlations between the various risk factors were modeled using network analysis conducted on the obtained RNM. Finally, the key risk factors leading to preconstruction delays were determined using clustering analysis. The research findings demonstrated that the most critical preconstruction delay risk factors are (1) design changes, mistakes, errors, and omissions; and (2) conflicts among project participants. This research adds to the body of knowledge by developing a new approach that models preconstruction delay factors as an interconnected network of events rather than as independent occurrences, thus providing a better understanding of how different preconstruction delay risk factors interact with each other and how the occurrence of one risk factor can trigger other occurrences. This research motivates stakeholders to look out for preconstruction delays more actively during project planning and design and to effectively mitigate them, ultimately improving risk management strategies during the preconstruction phase of projects.