Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Exclusive Lanes for Autonomous Trucks Considering the Risk of Intrusion into Adjacent Lanes under Crosswinds: Joint Decision of Lane Width and Lateral Control Modes

Abstract

To quantify the impact of lane width and truck lateral control modes on the life-cycle cost (LCC) and operational safety of exclusive lanes for autonomous trucks (ATs), this study proposes a LCC framework that considers the risk of ATs intruding into adjacent lanes under crosswind. Based on the maximum lateral deviation data obtained from XFlow-TruckSim, the gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) model, which performed best among five machine learning methods, was utilized as the risk quantification method. The study considered three lateral control modes for ATs: central distribution, uniform distribution, and normal distribution, evaluating both their safety and the damage they cause to the exclusive lanes. Furthermore, with lane width and truck lateral control modes as decision variables, a multiobjective optimization model was established to incorporate vehicle risk into the life-cycle costs analysis of the exclusive lanes. The trend of risk probability was generally similar to the variation in total life-cycle costs, primarily due to the overwhelming importance of user safety cost. Adopting a exclusive lane width of 3.54 m for AT operation under crosswind is a favorable decision. For already constructed exclusive lanes with a width less than 3.05 m, it is preferable for ATs to adopt a uniform distribution lateral control mode. When the lane width exceeds 3.21 m, centrally traveling ATs become a better choice. If the lane width is between 3.05 and 3.21 m, central travel is generally superior, and it is least recommended for ATs to follow a uniform distribution lateral control mode. The findings provide crucial guidance for the design of exclusive lanes for ATs and the lateral control modes adopted in their operation postconstruction. The study addresses the conflicting challenge of increasing lane width, which can raise institutional costs while reducing the risk of lateral vehicle accidents.