Statistical Assessment of Geological and Geomorphological Factors on Building Damages Caused by the February 6, 2023 Earthquakes in the Amanos Region of Türkiye

Abstract

The devastating earthquakes of February 6, 2023, in Türkiye’s Amanos region resulted in over 50,000 fatalities and damaged over 500,000 buildings. This study employs binary logistic regression analysis (area under the curve = 0.658) on data from 331,061 buildings in the region to understand the influence of geological and geomorphological features on building damage. The analysis revealed a quantitative relationship between altitude and damage. Buildings at 100–200 m had the highest damage ratio (38.1%), while damage significantly decreased above 600 m (below 25%). Similarly, a strong correlation was found between slope and damage; buildings on flat terrains (0–10°) had a 27.91% damage rate, which declined steadily with increasing slope. Aspect also played an important role, with east-facing buildings exhibiting the highest damage (33.11%). Furthermore, different lithology classes significantly impacted the proportion of damaged buildings. Proximity to ruptured faults also influenced damage severity, with extremely high damage rates up to 4,800-m distance, gradually decreasing between 4,800 and 10,000 m, and disappearing beyond 10,000 m. These findings underscore the importance of integrating geological considerations into urban planning and risk mitigation strategies, especially in earthquake-prone areas. The study provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between geological characteristics and building vulnerability, paving the way for more resilient construction practices.