Research on the Dynamic Evolution of Social Risks in Community Renewal Projects: Considering the Coupling Effects of Factors

Abstract

The social risk of a community renewal project is a macro concept, which is composed of many micro social risk factors. Community renewal projects involve a large number of stakeholder subjects, and the relationship between the subjects is intricate and complex, which leads to a more diversified source of social risk factors behind community renewal projects. There are interactions and interdependence among many factors, and complex interactions form a coupled relationship between the factors. In this paper, an original corpus is constructed based on online and offline data, and 19 risk factors of community renewal projects and the coupling effects of the factors are identified through the grounded theory. The factor weights are solved through the analytic network process (ANP). The dynamic evolution model of social risks is constructed through the system dynamics model based on the factors, the coupling effects of the factors, and the factor weights, so as to simulate the dynamic evolution process of the social risks. The results show that factors such as the management mechanism soundness have larger weights, and in the process of social risks evolution, core factors such as unsound management mechanism will trigger a series of other risk factors, which will increase the overall social risks. This paper identifies the key factors of social risks, clarifies the complex coupling relationship between the factors, provides a dynamic evolution model, reveals the dynamic evolution process of social risks, and provides theoretical basis and countermeasure suggestions for efficiently identifying and controlling the social risks of community renewal projects. Community renewal projects involve numerous stakeholders, including the government, enterprises, and residents. These stakeholders interact frequently, creating complex relationships that significantly impact the project. The diverse factors from these stakeholders can lead to significant social risks in community renewal projects, with these factors influencing and interacting with each other. This paper constructs a dynamic evolution model of social risks, which can reveal how social risk factors from diverse entities evolve dynamically. It uncovers the micro-level components behind the macro concept of social risks, helping managers and practitioners clarify the constituent factors of social risks and their dynamic interrelationships. By predicting social risks and their evolution in community renewal projects, this model provides a theoretical basis and feasible suggestions for efficiently identifying, evaluating, analyzing, and controlling social risks. Ultimately, it contributes to enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of community renewal projects.