Predicting Hydrological Droughts of Long-Narrow Type Drainage Basin Using Monte Carlo Technique

Abstract

Drought forecasting is a critical aspect of water resource management, where droughts have substantial economic and environmental impacts. This study employs a Monte Carlo–based approach, complemented by statistical distribution fitting and trend analysis, to forecast future streamflows on long-narrow type drainage basins. Therefore, the Kızılırmak River Basin in Turkey, which is a long and narrow type, has been selected to test the suggested method. Historical data are used to determine the best-fitting distributions, ensuring reliability in the selection of future streamflow scenarios also using trend analysis. The study reveals valuable insights into potential drought occurrences over the next 25 years, aiding decision makers in implementing water management strategies. Based on the analysis results, it is expected that the drought frequency is increased up to 64.7%. Drought severity is classified into different categories, offering an understanding of drought characteristics. The findings contribute to effective water resource planning by aiming the assessment of future hydrological droughts.