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    Aging Epidemiology: A Hereditary Mechanics–Inspired Approach to COVID-19 Fatality Rates

    Source: Journal of Engineering Mechanics:;2024:;Volume ( 150 ):;issue: 007::page 04024041-1
    Author:
    Niketa Ukaj
    ,
    Christian Hellmich
    ,
    Stefan Scheiner
    DOI: 10.1061/JENMDT.EMENG-7640
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has evidenced that reliable model-based epidemiological predictions have remained an open challenge, and this concerns in particular the identification of model parameters that may change throughout the course of the pandemic. This aging characteristic of an epidemic is our present focus, by example of predicting fatality trends from infection histories. Regarding the challenge as a mechanobiological problem, we employ a hereditary mechanics-rooted Boltzmann-Volterra-type integro-differential equation, so that the fatality rate is obtained as a time integral over the rate of confirmed cases (i.e., the so-called incidence), multiplied with a kernel depending on evolving, i.e., time-dependent, fatality fractions and time lags between infection and death. This novel convolution approach, including its degeneration to an aging infection-to-death-rate delay rule, is superior to the traditional kinetics approach in as many as 93% of the tested cases associated with 228 countries, territories, and US states. The corresponding country-, territory-, and US state-specific fatality fractions appear as exponentially decaying quantities with characteristic decay times ranging from around 100 days to several years; with a world median of some 480 days, and with 100 to 200 days being typical for Western Europe and several Eastern US states. These parameters show periods of fair stability over one to several hundred days, indicating midterm prediction capabilities of our novel approach.
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      Aging Epidemiology: A Hereditary Mechanics–Inspired Approach to COVID-19 Fatality Rates

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    contributor authorNiketa Ukaj
    contributor authorChristian Hellmich
    contributor authorStefan Scheiner
    date accessioned2024-12-24T10:25:27Z
    date available2024-12-24T10:25:27Z
    date copyright7/1/2024 12:00:00 AM
    date issued2024
    identifier otherJENMDT.EMENG-7640.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4298893
    description abstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has evidenced that reliable model-based epidemiological predictions have remained an open challenge, and this concerns in particular the identification of model parameters that may change throughout the course of the pandemic. This aging characteristic of an epidemic is our present focus, by example of predicting fatality trends from infection histories. Regarding the challenge as a mechanobiological problem, we employ a hereditary mechanics-rooted Boltzmann-Volterra-type integro-differential equation, so that the fatality rate is obtained as a time integral over the rate of confirmed cases (i.e., the so-called incidence), multiplied with a kernel depending on evolving, i.e., time-dependent, fatality fractions and time lags between infection and death. This novel convolution approach, including its degeneration to an aging infection-to-death-rate delay rule, is superior to the traditional kinetics approach in as many as 93% of the tested cases associated with 228 countries, territories, and US states. The corresponding country-, territory-, and US state-specific fatality fractions appear as exponentially decaying quantities with characteristic decay times ranging from around 100 days to several years; with a world median of some 480 days, and with 100 to 200 days being typical for Western Europe and several Eastern US states. These parameters show periods of fair stability over one to several hundred days, indicating midterm prediction capabilities of our novel approach.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleAging Epidemiology: A Hereditary Mechanics–Inspired Approach to COVID-19 Fatality Rates
    typeJournal Article
    journal volume150
    journal issue7
    journal titleJournal of Engineering Mechanics
    identifier doi10.1061/JENMDT.EMENG-7640
    journal fristpage04024041-1
    journal lastpage04024041-17
    page17
    treeJournal of Engineering Mechanics:;2024:;Volume ( 150 ):;issue: 007
    contenttypeFulltext
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