Risk Identification, Prioritization, and Mapping for Early Construction Cost Contingency in Transportation Infrastructure Projects

Abstract

State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) require reliable early construction cost estimates for project budgeting. Typically, project budgets are established early in the development process before finalizing a project’s scope of work. Due to the inherent incompleteness of scope definition and specifications, early estimates of construction costs are hardly accurate, necessitating the estimation and usage of a contingency. However, most DOTs use a predetermined approach to estimate construction cost contingencies without considering project-specific risks and uncertainties. Furthermore, few research studies have been focused on improving construction cost contingency estimation in the early phases. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by laying the initial foundation for a project-specific and risk-driven approach for DOTs. Significant risks affecting construction cost contingencies were identified, prioritized, and then mapped with common project types by applying a hybrid research methodology of reviewing and analyzing DOT manuals, risk checklists, and risk registers and conducting and analyzing questionnaire surveys with DOT experts. The subjectivity and vagueness of survey responses affecting risk prioritization were addressed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic approaches.