Fragility Evaluation of Bridge Pile Foundation Considering Scour Development under Floods

Abstract

Flooding occurrences have become increasingly severe, posing a serious danger to end-user safety and bridge resilience. As flood fragility assessment is a valuable tool for promoting the resilience of bridges to climate change, it is of great importance to push the development of such methods. However, flood fragility has not received as much attention as seismic fragility despite the significant amount of damage and costs resulting from flood hazards. There has been little effort to estimate the flood fragility of bridges considering various flood-related factors and the corresponding failure modes. To this end, a fragility-based approach that can explicitly address the scour-hole geometry and flood-induced lateral load is presented. First, a three-dimensional finite-element model with pile foundations and surrounding soil was established to estimate the failure mode under various flood scenarios. The loadings on pile foundations were characterized by vertical loading from the superstructure, horizontal loading from the flood-induced lateral load, and the scour effect simulated through a time-history analysis. Then, all potential failure modes of bridge pile foundations in various flood scenarios were summarized. Based on extensive parameter investigations using the deterministic method, the dominant failure mode of penetration failure was determined, and a failure envelope was fitted to guide the design of the pile foundation. Upon establishing the failure mode, a probabilistic fragility analysis considering uncertainties in hydraulic, structural, and geological parameters was finally conducted using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The results showed the effects of variation on the fragility of the pile foundation, highlighting that the deterministic analysis without considering the uncertainties in model parameters leads to underestimating the risk due to the penetration failure and the significant influence region.