Human-Centered Approach for Resilience Assessment of Healthcare Networks Subjected to Sequential Earthquakes

Abstract

Healthcare services are critical for community resilience and stability as their role after disastrous events is indispensable to reducing casualties and returning the community to normalcy. Sequential mainshock-aftershock events can damage hospital components, reduce utility availability, and cause multiple patient surges. No studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact of mainshock-aftershock events on healthcare resilience. Accordingly, here we investigate the impact of multiple earthquakes on the healthcare network in Shelby County, Tennessee, and determine the optimal resources needed to enhance its functionality. The functionality is estimated by combining functionality quantity and quality terms. The quantity is calculated based on the number of staffed beds, a function of physical space, staff, and supplies. The quality is based on the waiting time to receive treatment. The analysis starts by simulating the intensities of the mainshock and aftershock events. Following hazard simulation, the impacts of the mainshock on damaging the hospital buildings, the supporting infrastructure, and the associated staff housing are modeled. A semi-Markovian process is then used to model the repair process to update the condition of the physical space over time. A staff-to-hospital connectivity model is utilized to simulate the connection between the residence of each hospital staff and their residence. Additionally, a patient-to-hospital connectivity model is used to simulate the hospitals’ demand. The results show that providing alternatives for hospitals’ staff, space, and supplies during multiple hazards effectively improves healthcare resilience. For the investigated scenario, the optimal use of these alternatives can shorten the recovery time by 38% and increase the resilience of the healthcare system by 8%.