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    Unrealistic Project Goals: Detection and Modification

    Source: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2024:;Volume ( 150 ):;issue: 003::page 04023166-1
    Author:
    Mehdi Rajabi Asadabadi
    ,
    Ofer Zwikael
    DOI: 10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-13665
    Publisher: ASCE
    Abstract: Determining whether to invest in a project is a complex and challenging decision. This project investment decision relies heavily on its promised strategic goals (i.e., target benefits) stated in its business case and which are expected to be realized following project completion. However, in many cases, the proposed project benefits are far greater than those that the project realistically can achieve, leading to the risk of projects being funded erroneously. The construction management literature has offered approaches such as reference class forecasting (RCF) to rectify unrealistic project estimates. This paper identifies weaknesses in the current approaches, exposes their inefficiency, and proposes a step-by-step stratified approach as an effective alternative to detect, measure, and rectify unrealistic estimates of project benefits, and utilizes the proposed approach on a light rail construction project. The contribution of this approach is that each project benefit target can be rectified differently, based on the measurable levels of deviation from more-realistic estimates. This paper advances the construction management literature by enabling managers to set realistic project goals in the project front end, increase the reliability of estimates in the project business case, and improve the quality of project investment decisions. The decision to fund a construction project is impacted by information included in business cases and proposals, such as the estimated project cost and expected goals. However, such information often is unrealistic or exaggerated (to make the project more attractive for funding), which negatively impacts investment decisions made by senior executives. As a result, projects can be funded erroneously, causing a waste of resources and potential failure to achieve its unrealistic expectations. Because the existing literature offers little guidance for how to ensure that project goals are realistic, this paper developed and illustrates a step-by-step process for measuring and rectifying the gap between proposed and realistic project goals to alert senior executives when a proposed project is unlikely to meet its proposed goals.
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      Unrealistic Project Goals: Detection and Modification

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    contributor authorMehdi Rajabi Asadabadi
    contributor authorOfer Zwikael
    date accessioned2024-04-27T22:45:04Z
    date available2024-04-27T22:45:04Z
    date issued2024/03/01
    identifier other10.1061-JCEMD4.COENG-13665.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4297405
    description abstractDetermining whether to invest in a project is a complex and challenging decision. This project investment decision relies heavily on its promised strategic goals (i.e., target benefits) stated in its business case and which are expected to be realized following project completion. However, in many cases, the proposed project benefits are far greater than those that the project realistically can achieve, leading to the risk of projects being funded erroneously. The construction management literature has offered approaches such as reference class forecasting (RCF) to rectify unrealistic project estimates. This paper identifies weaknesses in the current approaches, exposes their inefficiency, and proposes a step-by-step stratified approach as an effective alternative to detect, measure, and rectify unrealistic estimates of project benefits, and utilizes the proposed approach on a light rail construction project. The contribution of this approach is that each project benefit target can be rectified differently, based on the measurable levels of deviation from more-realistic estimates. This paper advances the construction management literature by enabling managers to set realistic project goals in the project front end, increase the reliability of estimates in the project business case, and improve the quality of project investment decisions. The decision to fund a construction project is impacted by information included in business cases and proposals, such as the estimated project cost and expected goals. However, such information often is unrealistic or exaggerated (to make the project more attractive for funding), which negatively impacts investment decisions made by senior executives. As a result, projects can be funded erroneously, causing a waste of resources and potential failure to achieve its unrealistic expectations. Because the existing literature offers little guidance for how to ensure that project goals are realistic, this paper developed and illustrates a step-by-step process for measuring and rectifying the gap between proposed and realistic project goals to alert senior executives when a proposed project is unlikely to meet its proposed goals.
    publisherASCE
    titleUnrealistic Project Goals: Detection and Modification
    typeJournal Article
    journal volume150
    journal issue3
    journal titleJournal of Construction Engineering and Management
    identifier doi10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-13665
    journal fristpage04023166-1
    journal lastpage04023166-15
    page15
    treeJournal of Construction Engineering and Management:;2024:;Volume ( 150 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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