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    Analysis and Modeling of Pressure Pipe Failures in Auckland, New Zealand

    Source: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management:;2024:;Volume ( 150 ):;issue: 004::page 04024007-1
    Author:
    Laura L. Lopez
    ,
    Jakobus E. van Zyl
    ,
    Brendon Harkness
    DOI: 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6242
    Publisher: ASCE
    Abstract: Pressure pipe failure is a common problem for water utilities worldwide and can result in high costs and disruption of customers. This study analyzed the failure rates of iron, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), asbestos cement (AC), and polyethylene (PE) mains in the water network of the Auckland, New Zealand, over a six-year period. Correlations between failure rates and a range of contributing factors were studied, and multilinear regression and machine learning (random forest, gradient boosted decision tree) models were then used to predict pipe failure rates and prioritize pipes for replacement. The study found the most important factors influencing failure rates to be diameter, age, and modeled pressure for all materials. The failure rates of all materials increased within a relatively narrow band up to a 30 year age. For pressure, failure rates were observed to increase linearly with pressure for iron and AC, while plastics (PVC and PE) displayed nonlinear trends with pressure having a greater relative impact at higher values. The pressure trends were observed for each material when considering all pipes, but also when grouping pipes by diameter or age. A focused investigation using scatterer interferometry data captured by the SENTINEL-1 satellite did not find any correlation between pipe failures and any identified ground movements from adjacent reflective surfaces. The gradient boosted decision tree model was able to include a high fraction of failing pipes in a prioritized pipe replacement list limited to 1% of the system length.
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      Analysis and Modeling of Pressure Pipe Failures in Auckland, New Zealand

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4296993
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    contributor authorLaura L. Lopez
    contributor authorJakobus E. van Zyl
    contributor authorBrendon Harkness
    date accessioned2024-04-27T22:34:53Z
    date available2024-04-27T22:34:53Z
    date issued2024/04/01
    identifier other10.1061-JWRMD5.WRENG-6242.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4296993
    description abstractPressure pipe failure is a common problem for water utilities worldwide and can result in high costs and disruption of customers. This study analyzed the failure rates of iron, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), asbestos cement (AC), and polyethylene (PE) mains in the water network of the Auckland, New Zealand, over a six-year period. Correlations between failure rates and a range of contributing factors were studied, and multilinear regression and machine learning (random forest, gradient boosted decision tree) models were then used to predict pipe failure rates and prioritize pipes for replacement. The study found the most important factors influencing failure rates to be diameter, age, and modeled pressure for all materials. The failure rates of all materials increased within a relatively narrow band up to a 30 year age. For pressure, failure rates were observed to increase linearly with pressure for iron and AC, while plastics (PVC and PE) displayed nonlinear trends with pressure having a greater relative impact at higher values. The pressure trends were observed for each material when considering all pipes, but also when grouping pipes by diameter or age. A focused investigation using scatterer interferometry data captured by the SENTINEL-1 satellite did not find any correlation between pipe failures and any identified ground movements from adjacent reflective surfaces. The gradient boosted decision tree model was able to include a high fraction of failing pipes in a prioritized pipe replacement list limited to 1% of the system length.
    publisherASCE
    titleAnalysis and Modeling of Pressure Pipe Failures in Auckland, New Zealand
    typeJournal Article
    journal volume150
    journal issue4
    journal titleJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
    identifier doi10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6242
    journal fristpage04024007-1
    journal lastpage04024007-10
    page10
    treeJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management:;2024:;Volume ( 150 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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