Driving Mechanisms of Green Regeneration in Old Industrial Areas under Ecological Security Constraints: Evolutionary Game Theory Oriented toward Public Satisfaction

Abstract

Old industrial areas have numerous ecological safety problems, requiring green regeneration to mitigate related risks. This study considered the impact of public participation and willingness to adopt green regeneration of old industrial areas and developed an evolutionary game model for the local government and developers. Then, we analyzed the initial strategy and relevant variables of the game through MATLAB (version 2021a) simulation to inform the establishment of green regeneration of old industrial areas. The study results showed that public willingness to use regenerated industrial areas and green preferences could motivate the adoption of green regeneration among developers. The incremental cost of ecological restoration of old industrial areas considerably hinders developers from opting for green regeneration. When the incremental cost exceeds the government’s financial subsidies and policy preferences, developers often opt for traditional renovation. Furthermore, punitive measures enforced by local government against developers were found to be more effective than incentives; when the cost of punishment exceeds the incremental cost of ecological restoration, developers often opt for green regeneration. Although the ecological safety concerns in old industrial areas can prompt local governments to opt for stringent regulations and developers for green regeneration at the beginning of the game model, evolutionary stability is not reached. It is necessary to study the green regeneration of old industrial areas as this issue has attained global consensus and is related to the sustainable development of the ecological environment and the improvement of the public quality of life. By modeling a multi-interest game scenario, this paper further clarified the key factors hindering the green regeneration of old industrial areas, which is helpful in solving the practical problems existing in the implementation of such projects and promoting the development of green regeneration in old industrial areas. At the same time, based on the problem of ecological security constraints in the old industrial areas, the research guided by public satisfaction has promoted the development of green regeneration projects in the old industrial areas, effectively improved the current situation of the old industrial areas and its surrounding ecological environment, accelerated the process of urban renewal, and injected new vitality into the construction of national ecological civilization.