Probabilistic Analysis of Pipelines in Geohazard Zones Using a Novel Approach for Strain Calculation

Abstract

This paper presents an approach for probabilistic analysis of pipelines buried through geohazard-prone areas that induce permanent ground movements potentially. In this approach, an easy-to-implement response prediction tool based on the finite-difference method is integrated with simple but robust Monte Carlo simulation methods. The probability of strain capacity exceedance is calculated when a pipeline is subjected to the ground movement of different magnitudes. In the strain-based limit state function, the strain capacity is determined using existing equations in the literature, and the strain demand is calculated using an accurate and efficient tool based on the finite-difference method. After obtaining the conditional probabilities of failure of pipes at given magnitudes of ground movement, the probability of failure of pipes as a function of time is also calculated considering the probability of ground movement initiation. The proposed approach is demonstrated through a case study of pipelines subjected to landslides. Pipelines are crucial components of lifeline infrastructure systems that facilitate the transportation of diverse gas and fluid substances. The vulnerability of pipelines buried in geohazard-prone areas necessitates a proactive approach to risk mitigation. This study introduces a methodology for assessing pipeline safety through probabilistic analysis. The methodology considers the probability of the pipeline’s resistance to ground movements, as well as the likelihood of potential geohazards like slope creep and landslides. An innovative approach is employed to calculate the probability of the pipeline’s resistance to ground movement, providing relatively accurate results while minimizing time requirements. The probability of slope creep and landslide events is derived from relevant guidelines and engineering reports. The final result, represented by the probability of failure, serves as a quantifiable measure to determine the safety level of the pipeline. This study can be referenced during decision-making processes related to pipeline design and maintenance, ultimately enhancing pipeline system safety.