System Context: Global Change and the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

Abstract

Food-energy-water (FEW) nexus research emphasizes the links among food, energy, and water resource systems and is introduced as an attempt to overcome independent single-sector approaches that dominate the governing of resources today. Focus on multiple sectors and links among them is a key concept to the systems approach and methodology for its implementation by identifying and quantifying the connections between food, energy, and water sectors; modeling the FEW nexus system; and simulation of future management scenarios for decision-making assistance. This paper investigates the FEW nexus methodology within the system context by comparing simulation results obtained by the fully integrated model of global change, named ANEMI, and its modification, ANEMI_FEW, obtained by isolating nexus sectors from the rest of the model. Developing ANEMI_FEW requires breaking multiple feedback relationships that define the dynamic behavior of the modeled systems. A comparison of the simulation results confirms that the nexus model structure generates misleading results due to the break of significant feedbacks between FEW nexus and other sectors of the global change model. Obtained results are strongly suggesting that the nexus approach should be replaced with a more comprehensive structure of the global change model. The global ANEMI model is used as an example to investigate the research question. The findings generated by simulations of ANEMI and ANEMI_FEW are applicable to modeling at any scale (global, regional, or local).