| description abstract | In this paper, we propose a sparse modeling method for automatically creating a surrogate model for nonlinear time-variant systems from a very small number of time series data with nonconstant time steps. We developed three machine learning methods, namely, (1) a data preprocessing method for considering the correlation between errors, (2) a sequential thresholded non-negative least-squares method based on term size criteria, and (3) a solution space search method involving similarity model classification—to apply sparse identification of nonlinear dynamical systems, as first proposed in 2016, to temperature prediction simulations. The proposed method has the potential for wide application to fields where the concept of equivalent circuits can be applied. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified using time series data obtained by thermofluid analysis of a power module. Two types of cooling systems were verified: forced air cooling and natural air cooling. The model created from the thermofluid analysis results with fewer than the number of input parameters, predicted multiple test data, including extrapolation, with a mean error of less than 1 K. Because the proposed method can be applied using a very small number of data, has a high extrapolation accuracy, and is easy to interpret, it is expected not only that design parameter can be fine-tuned and actual loads can be taken into account, but also that condition-based maintenance can be realized through real-time simulation. | |
